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As a Munsterman first and Irish fan second, it is difficult to stay unbiased on two fronts – calling Ireland’s results and picking the best 15 – when looking forward towards the Six Nations 2012. But I will try to do so!
The first thing I have to say is, I find the odds going into this tournament perplexing. I don’t always have a bet on big tournaments, but if there is ridiculous value about I will have a taste. When I first checked the odds for the 6 Nations, just after the penultimate weekend of action in the Heineken Cup, Ireland were available at 11/2, fourth favourites. Ahead of them were France at 13/8, Wales 11/4 and England, incredibly, at 7/2. I just had to dip my toes in and have a patriotic bet!
After Declan Kidney announced his squad, the odds on Ireland went into 9/2, and shortly afterwards were reduced to 4/1. So already I feel as though I have got good value for money! The reason for the slash in Ireland’s odds was most likely a response to the conservative, “safe” selection of Kidney, choosing the tried and trusted players rather than taking a chance with the young talent that is rapidly developing within the provinces. However, before that squad announcement, there is no logical explanation that I can see that Ireland should have been installed as 4th favourites. Just because we are away to England and France this year is not reason enough for me – I do not see any team doing a grandslam this year, so 3 home wins and 1 victory in either Paris or London will see us tied at the top, and then it is down to points difference. I think it will be the tightest competition for many years, so even 4/1 is overpriced for me.
The question mark over Ireland, of course, is whether they can transfer the form of the provinces into success in the green jersey. What people fail to recognise, when claiming that players from the provinces do not gel for Ireland, is the pride and momentum that success in the Heineken Cup gives players as the enter the Six Nations. Both Munster and Leinster are unbeaten, while Ulster qualified from a group of death, humiliating the Leicester Tigers with a perfect performance in Ravenhill in the penultimate round, and coming within a try of a deserved home draw in the quarter finals. From Ireland’s point of view, it is such a pity that the Irish teams could not have been kept apart until the semi-finals, but do not underestimate the confidence that the players will bring with them into the opening game against Wales.
This opener is crucial for the whole tournament. If Ireland cannot beat a Wales side, who will be missing Gethin Jenkins and Rhys Priestland, with home advantage and not one, but two, scores to settle, they should write off their chances for this tournament and give the young lads a chance. Most of the team starting on Feb 5 will be out to prove themselves, as they will feel that they let themselves down in the World Cup quarter-final. Fair play to Wales, they deservedly won that day and probably should have made the final, but the Ireland players know that they under-performed, and will not be needing any extra motivation at the Aviva. Add to that the injustice of last year, with Mike Phillips’ ridiculously-awarded try, and for me analysis of the breakdown, set-pieces, rucks and mauls is all moot for this game – Ireland will want it more and will not leave anything in the dressing room. Revenge is a word that must be backed up if you start putting it around (unlike sorry Northampton in Round 6 of the Heineken), so Kidney, O Connell and the rest will be careful not to give Gatland any ammunition to stoke up his players, but will do their talking on the pitch.
France are understandably favourites, but with new management they could take time to gel. Sant-Andre may take time to find his best team, and he will be anxious to build a solid, professional group of players who play for him and each other, after the unpredictable and manic reign of Lievremont. The players likewise may take time to get up to speed with his style of play, and with Italy in Paris up first (with revenge again on the menu), an easy win would not do them any favours, as it may give them false confidence as they head into the real challenges ahead, particularly Wales in Cardiff. They should edge Ireland out at home, but if they are not mentally prepared they could be made to pay.
It is always difficult to pick yourselves up and build a campaign after suffering defeat in your first match, which is what Wales will probably have to do. This shows the importance of getting a home match first time out, as it gives you the chance to build momentum and carry that onto successive games. Ireland’s draw is handy, in that they are at home to their biggest rivals (of the three home games) first, they can get the most difficult game in Paris out of the way in the second, and then it’s two winnable home matches against Italy and Scotland, before a visit to Twickenham on Paddy’s Day, possibly with a chance to win the Championship. Wales, on the other hand, will have to pick themselves up after their opening defeat, so will be glad to have Scotland at home in Round 2. Not that Scotland are bad, but with home advantage Wales will just be too strong and too cute for them. Unfortunately for Wales, I think that they will have a stop-start camgain, and will lose to an England team which is starting to get its act together by Round 3, but, like Ireland, will not need any extra motivation in the final round against France at a packed Millenium Stadium. They will finish their campaign with three home wins, two away defeats.
France, probably without playing spectacularly well (nor as flamboyantly as Lievremont’s teams), I take to go undefeated until that final match against Wales. They have home advantage against Ireland and England, and should have too much pack power for the Scots in Murrayfield. That final defeat in Cardiff, however, will open the door for Ireland to win the Championship, assuming they have not run riot in any of the previous rounds and are out of reach, in terms of accumulated points difference. Ireland play last, for once, in the final round, so will know before kick-off in Twickenham if they have a chance of the Championship.
England are the most difficult team to predict for me this year. It all depends on how much Lancaster experiments with his squad, and I have a feeling he will experiment a lot. I can see them struggling in the earlier rounds, during which time he will probably be vilified in the English press, but the team will get to know each other, become more confident and impassioned as the tournament goes on, and a moral-boosting win over Wales in Round 3 will have them (the press, that is, not the players or management) looking excitedly at 2015 already, prematurely seeing themselves as the team to beat. The team, on the other hand, will fancy their chances heading to Paris in Round 4, but I just think the venue will go against them for that one, and they will narrowly lose to the French. This disruption to their recovery may just work for Ireland as they head to London in that last round!
Before their recovery against Wales, I am taking England to struggle in the early rounds. Two away matches against Scotland and Italy can be trickier than they look on paper, especially as the chip the Scots usually carry on their shoulders coming into Calcutta Cups will be heavier than usual, following from their close defeat to an England team they are on a par with in the World Cup, and the Italians will fancy their chances of adding the scalp of England to that of France from last year. The Azzurri have usually tested England on home soil, and with their home matches being hosted in the 80,000 Stadio Olimpico this year rather than the Stadio Flaminio, expect a more vociferous and passionate home crowd. If England turn up expecting the usual balmy Saturday afternoon victory, with the Italian pack as usual making life difficult in the first half, but England’s superior backs pulling away in the second, they will be in for a shock. Brunel is no sentimentalist, and has already axed experienced campaigners such as Perugini and Ongaro from his squad, putting his faith in the young, quality players progressing nicely through the ranks of Aironi and Treviso, and seems to have got the blend of youth and experience just right. Expect to know more about players such as Burton, Masi and Esposito by the end of this tournament.
With these tricky hurdles to overcome, England could be nicely set up if they get two wins out of two, heading into the more difficult and high-profile contests with Wales, France and Ireland. But I am sticking my neck out and predicting that most rare of results, the draw, in Murrayfield, and, heart ruling my head a bit, a famous win for Italy in Rome on February 11.
Scotland, I feel, will lack nothing in passion but still need to find that cutting edge when it comes to scoring tries. One day, they will explode into try-scoring action, but until we see it happen, it is difficult to see coming. I expect all of their games to be close affairs, but typical heartbreak the outcome in most of them.
Italy’s win over England will be their only one, for me. They will be hopeful of finishing second-bottom with a last-day win over the Scots, but I am taking Scotland (just) to avoid the wooden spoon with another narrow win.
I realise that this analysis has nothing to do with skill sets, selections or tactics, but is based on passion. This is because I do believe that passion is the most important ingredient in rugby, especially in international rugby. When both teams are evenly matched for passion, the most skilful or astute team should win, but it is the passion that makes this tournament so exciting for me!
One thing I would like to see change in the 6 Nations – I would love to see bonus points become a feature. Maybe, down the line, this will become a reality, and the tournament will become as exciting as the Heineken Cup.
So, here are my predictions. Crazy as I am, I have tried to call the correct score and number of tries in each match! Just for the craic – if I get 50% of the results right, I will be amazed!
I will probably be completely wrong after Round 1, with England top and France bottom, and it will be back to the drawing board! But what the hell – here we go …
PREDICTIONS
Saturday, 4 February 2012 Result Tries scored Correct Score
France v Italy, 14:30 France 3-1 27-10
Scotland v England, 17:00 Draw 0-0 12-12
Sunday, 5 February 2012
Ireland v Wales, 15:00 Ireland 2-1 23-16
Saturday, 11 February 2012
Italy v England, 16:00 Italy 1-1 17-13
France v Ireland, 20:00 France 2-2 26-20
Sunday, 12 February 2012
Wales v Scotland, 15:00 Wales 2-0 17-9
Saturday, 25 February 2012
Ireland v Italy, 13:30 Ireland 2-0 26-9
England v Wales, 16:00 England 2-1 20-13
Sunday, 26 February 2012
Scotland v France, 15:00 France 1-1 19-24
Saturday, 10 March 2012
Wales v Italy, 14:30 Wales 3-0 28-6
Ireland v Scotland, 17:00 Ireland 2-0 21-9
Sunday, 11 March 2012
France v England, 15:00 France 2-2 27-23
Saturday, 17 March 2012
Italy v Scotland, 12:30 Scotland 1-0 11-12
Wales v France, 14:45 Wales 2-1 20-13
England v Ireland, 17:00 Ireland 1-1 16-19
Final Table
P W D L F A PD TF Pts.
Ireland 5 4 0 1 109 76 33 9 8
France 5 4 0 1 117 92 25 9 8
Wales 5 3 0 2 94 71 23 9 6
England 5 1 1 3 84 88 -4 6 3
Scotland 5 1 1 3 61 85 -24 1 3
Italy 5 1 0 4 53 106 -53 3 2
On this day in 1377, the “Babylonian Captivity” came to an end, as the Pope returned to Rome. This ended a period of 72 years, during which time seven successive Popes lived like kings in the luxurious surroundings of Avignon in Provence, France.
The move away from Rome, seat of the Papacy since St Peter’s arrival there in the middle of the first century, was anticipated by the behaviour of one of the worst Popes in history, Boniface VII. King Philip IV of France was an outspoken enemy of a man he called a “heretic”, and Boniface for his part tried to excommunicate the King of France, for refusing to accept his decree of supreme authority over all monarchs on earth. After the death of Boniface’s short-lived successor, Philip wielded his considerable power to have a Frenchman, Bertrand de Grot, elected as Pope Clement V. Clement immediately chose Avignon, instead of Rome, as his new home. There, he became no more than a puppet Pope for the king of France for his remaining years.
Clement was followed by a succession of greedy and sensuous pontiffs, who brought the reputation of the office of the papacy to its lowest ebb in its history (to that date). It was to be a saintly woman, St Catherine of Siena, who would personally convince Pope Gregory XI, to return to the Eternal City. Catherine was a Tuscan nun, who was truly spiritual and true to her faith. After making her pilgrimage to Avignon to plead her case to the pope, she was subjected to a terrible ordeal by the vicious women of the papal court, who were envious and suspicious of Catherine’s ecstasy during communion. They would take it in turns to prick and pinch her insensate body to test if her trance was genuine, one woman going so far as to pierce her foot with a long needle, so badly that Catherine was unable to walk for days.
In the end, Catherine won her case, and Gregory returned to Rome in 1377. In the 278 years since 1100, the popes had by now spent just 82 of them in Rome. The Church was aware of the need for consolidation and a return to original values, but the next crisis was just around the corner – the Great Western Schism, in which there were 3 claimants to the Papacy at the same time.
On this day in1208, Pope Innocent III’s representative Brother Peter of Castelnau was murdered in Toulouse. This prompted the Pope into launching a crusade against the Albigensians of Languedoc, also known as the Cathars. These holy men and women practised a Christian faith based on strict principles far removed from the practices of abbots, bishops and priests of the time, many of whom had mistresses, gambled and charged a fee for anything from holy orders to communion. In contrast, the Cathars shunned marriage and all worldly pleasures, hated Cathlic relics and rituals, and bestowed only one sacrament to their faithful, on the point of death. They denied the sacraments and dogmas of the Roman Catholic Church, going as far as to call Rome the Whore of Babylon and the Pope was the Antichrist. They hated priests and preached equality of the sexes, which was contrary to Catholic teaching.
Innocent III had been waiting for a good excuse to launch a crusade against these outsiders, and with the dead of Br. Peter, he finally had one. He chose the day of the canonisation of the monk, on March 10th of the same year, as the perfect opportunity to declare war on his enemy. Rising to his feet during the ceremony, he scowled, “Death to the heretics”. And he meant it.
Innocent promised French Catholics who killed Albigensian that they would reach the highest place in heaven, and land reclaimed from the heretics would be awarded to any noblemen willing to take up arms. In 1209, an army of 10,000 descended from Lyon. One of the bloodiest days was on July 22nd, when the inhabitants of Beziers were massacred by the mercenaries – about 20,000 men, women and children, many of whom were brutally slaughtered while celebrating mass in the Basilica of St Mary Magdalene, whose festival it was. The invaders, upon being informed that the booty from the town would not go to them but would be used to finance the crusade, took revenge by burning the town to the ground. Nothing, and no-one, survived Beziers.
Although the crusaders enjoyed great success in the first 6 years of their campaign, most of the captured lands were lost when the Albigensians regrouped and fought back between 1215 and 1225. By 1229, however, the Languedoc region was under the control of the King of France, and the Inquisition was born to rid the area of Cathar belief and converting heretics to the true faith. One by one, all Cathar strongholds fell in the following years and decades.
On this day, 106 BC, the great Roman orator Cicero was born. 6 years the elder of Julius Caesar, Cicero would reach greatness in politics long before his rival, though never achieving greatness on the battlefield, as Caesar so often and so successfully did. In the end, his wavering loyalty during the Civil Wars would be his undoing, Mark Anthony and Octavian ordering his death in 43 BC. Upon Anthony’s orders, probably smarting after Cicero’s damning letter “Second Philippic”, his hands were cut off and displayed, along with his head, on the Rostra in the Roman Forum.
The year may be off by 5 years, but on this day died one of the most important of all Roman historians, who certainly lived and wrote during one of the most interesting periods of Roman history – the Civil War and the subsequent birth of the Roman Empire.
Livy, or Titus Livius to give him his real name (why do we have to anglicise Roman names anyway?), was born in Padua but later moved to Rome. He was probably prevented from going to university in Athens, as most educated young Romans did, due to the troubles during the Civil Wars. He travelled to Rome in his thirties, where he would spend most of the rest of his life writing his History of Rome – a mammoth 142-volume narrative of the events that shaped Rome from its foundation in 753BC down to the principate of Augustus Caesar. The final events of his book took place in 9BC, suggesting that his work was unfinished – perhaps he had planned 150 volumes but was prevented from completing this by fear of retribution at the hands of Augustus – it was not wise to criticise or speak about controversial matters relating to the Emperor. Indeed, Livy himself states in a footnote to Book 121 that the book was not published until after Augustus’ death in 14AD.
Although some of his History would be based upon stories, myths and legends passed down orally over many generations, and although he wrote in a period of political change, therefore being required to toe the party line and portray Rome’s perpetual greatness in order not to provoke unrest or mistrust in the current oligarchy, what separates Livy from most Roman historians is his neutrality. He was not, as many other Roman authors whose scripts have survived, a politician, so we can take it that, Augustan propaganda aside, he did not have a personal agenda when putting pen to paper. This certainly cannot be said of Caesar, Cicero or Tacitus. For him, history was not a recreation, nor an opportunity for spin – it was life. His philosophical detachment allowed him to see history in terms of human characters and representative individuals rather than of partisan politics. In this sense, therefore, his is the “purest” of surviving histories of Rome.
Livy encouraged others, including the young nephew of Augustus and future Emperor of Rome, Claudius, to take up the writing of history, and his influence can be seen in the styles of later historians such as Suetonius and Cassius Dio. He died in his native Padua on this day in AD17.
Find out more about Roman authors and the history of Rome on our Ancient Rome tour.
Can there ever have been two more different leaders with the same birthday? On this day in 1449, the 18th birthday of the despicable Roderigo Borgia, an enigmatic leader was born in Florence to the Medici family. He was named Lorenzo, and would become known, during his lifetime and beyond, as Lorenzo the Magnificent.
Lorenzo inherited money and power from his father Piero, but it was his love of the arts that set him apart from the rest of the Medici. An aspiring artist himself, he had a great eye for talent, and “discovered” the greatness of Michelangelo while he was still a boy. Michelangelo would live in his palace and grow to love and admire Lorenzo as a father, and went to Rome following the political unrest in Florence that resulted in the removal from power, and from the city, of the Medici.
Although he lived during turbulent times, when treaties between powerful nations and the Vatican were torn apart as often as they were drawn up, Lorenzo managed to keep peace between the Italian states for much of his time in power, in spite of jealous plots from rival families in his own city. Dying at the young age of only 43, he would be best remembered, however, not for his political achievements, but for his contribution to humanism, philosophy and the arts. He encouraged and patronised many various artists, scholars and poets of the Renaissance, so much so that his death is now seen as a marking point in history for the end of the Golden Age of Florence.
Lorenzo at least was spared seeing the Papacy reduced to its nadir by a few months. Lorenzo passed in April 1492 – Roderigo Borgia succeeded in August of the same year in bribing enough votes from his fellow cardinals to ensure the Papal chair would be his. His eleven-year reign at the helm of the Catholic church remains to this day a source of shame and scandal for the Vatican.
Borgia is said to have committed his first murder at the tender age of 12, and this was to be only the beginning of a life of murder, sexual depravity, bribery and greed. He had ten illegitimate children, four of them, including the notorious Cesare and Lucrezia, by his most beloved mistress, Vanozza Catanei. Upon her death, now 58 years old, he took up with 15-year old Giulia Farnese (who used her connections to the benefit of her brother, was granted a red hat by the Pope, and would thus one day secure the chair of St. Peter for himself – although he could never quite rid himself of the unfortunate nickname, whispered in the corners of the Vatican and on the streets of Rome, of “the Petticoat Cardinal”).
The Church was already in desperate need of introspection and no little housecleaning in 1492 – when “the Borgia”, as he was known, was elected, all knew there was no hope. Taking the name of Alexander VI, he brought simony, bribery and abuse of Catholics to an all-time low. As Cardinal Giovanni de Medici said upon his election, “We are now in the clutches of perhaps the most savage wolf the world has ever seen. Either we flee or he will, without a doubt, devour us.”
Alexander VI’s reign ensured the Reformation that would begin 6 years after his death. It was during his time in power that the young Martin Luther first visited Rome and saw the depravity that he would never forget. Special brothels existed just for the clergy, the streets were lined with beggars, thieves and prostitutes, while everything in the church was for sale – livings, indulgences, cardinal’s hats – indeed, the Papacy itself was for sale. Borgia had to send four mule-loads of silver to his greatest rival in the election of 1492 to induce him to step down, and defeated Cardinal Giulianno de la Rovere by only one vote. La Rovere felt so afraid of his rival upon defeat that he immediately left Rome, and did not return until the “wolf” had died. He then succeeded on his next attempt (again, after an expensive bribery campaign) in becoming elected as Pope, taking the name of Julius II, upon which he took measures to ensure that never again would a papal campaign be tarnished by bribery or corruption!
Alexander VI did encourage the arts, and like Lorenzo, had a good eye for talent. He patronised several artists in Rome, and may of their works can still be seen in his apartments in the Vatican today. He also encouraged and financed a young monk called Copernicus, whose ground-breaking theories would create consternation in the church, especially when brought back into the public sphere by Galileo two centuries later.
See the Borgia Apartments in our Half-Day Vatican tour
